Good news and bad decisions? That's the headline for today's economic briefing, where we'll unpack the latest global financial happenings and what they mean for you. Let's dive in!
First, a quick snapshot: US data is generally looking up, Japan is hinting at a rate hike, machine tool orders are booming, and Taiwan's exports are shining again. Plus, German exports are on the rise. The US 10-year Treasury yield sits at 4.17%, gold is holding strong, and silver has hit a new record. Oil prices, however, are dipping due to oversupply concerns. The New Zealand dollar is trading at around 57.8 US cents, and the TWI-5 index is at 62.1.
Now, let's zoom in on some key developments. The overnight dairy Pulse auction showed continued weakness in milk powder prices. SMP fell by -0.5% from the previous week's auction, and -1.6% in NZD terms. WMP saw a more significant drop, down -3.6% in USD and -4.2% in NZD.
In the US, several labor market reports were released. The ADP private payrolls update showed a small gain of +5,000 jobs. The JOLTS report for October showed little change, but job openings were slightly higher than expected. The NFIB's SME sentiment survey was slightly better than anticipated, but still remains in a slight net negative. The retail Redbook survey eased back a bit last week, potentially indicating that Thanksgiving retail sales weren't as strong as hoped.
Here's where it gets controversial... There's more evidence that Trump's economic decisions are questionable. His failure to secure large-scale US soybean purchases from China is followed by a plan to provide US$16 million in taxpayer support to some farmers. He's also threatening tariffs on Canadian fertilizer imports, which could actually harm farmers by increasing costs.
And this is the part most people miss... He's also allowed Nvidia to sell its best AI chips to China, which will allow China to close the gap on the US AI advantages much faster. The US security community is shocked.
In Japan, machine tool orders were strong in November, up +14.2% year-over-year, driven by foreign orders. The Bank of Japan governor's remarks suggest another rate rise is on the horizon.
Taiwan's exports surged +56% in November, reaching a record US$64 billion, driven by global demand for their chips and AI technology. German exports also rose in October, defying expectations.
The RBA in Australia held the cash rate steady, but their review was slightly more hawkish. The NAB Business Confidence Index slipped in November but remained positive.
The UST 10yr yield is at 4.17%. The key 2-10 yield curve is still at +57 bps.
Wall Street is up +0.1%. European markets were mixed. Gold starts today at US$4217/oz, and silver has set a new record high. American oil prices are down to just over US$58/bbl. The Kiwi dollar is up to just on 57.8 USc.
Bitcoin is at US$94,444 and up +5.1% from yesterday.
What do you think? Do you agree with the analysis of these economic events? Share your thoughts in the comments below!
